Reasons to be happy

So on my drive home my twitter app on my phone starts going off with discussion (started of course by that Jon Shields) about the possibility of, if Erik Bedard and Jarrod Washburn were signed, it could POTENTIALLY … not necessarily… but, perhaps set up a trade that would involve Ryan Rowland-Smith.

This of course set off crying, weeping and mass hysteria. Good job Jon. I’m here to give you comfort on at this point that wouldn’t happen.

• RR-S is still under team control.

Let’s face it. Young players with cost controlled contracts are the new 100 million dollar contracts. General Managers found out they can’t just give away money anymore to old players who don’t do anything. Heck, Seattle was pretty much the poster boy example on how that is a bad idea.

• RR-S is the second best option on the Mariner staff through 2011.

Okay so there going to be a few free-agent starting pitchers that are great options for a team. Josh Becket, Cliff Lee, Brandon Webb, Javier Vazquez, Matt Cain the list goes on. The Mariners could and very well will involve themselves with one or two on that list. I doubt they’re going to pick-up an entire rotation through free-agency. 

Next year (2011) Mariners available starting pitchers looks something like this

Felix Herandez
Ryan Rowland-Smtih
Dan Cortes*
Jason Vargas
Doug Fister
Nicholas Hill*
Garrett Olson
Lucas French

Sure that could and most likely will change. But, even it does. He’s by far the best option we have going into next year. I would really like to see if can show the growth to be a good pitcher. Something beyond a back of the rotation guy. I think he won’t be very much more. But I do think he could be an effective third starter.

Both Dan Cortes and Nick Hill are both ended last season in AA West Tennessee. They will be given a mini audition with the club this spring. But, each has their separate issues with Cortes control problems and Hills lack of ability to go more than 5 innings a game. Neither look to do anything more than maybe compete for the last rotation spot next spring.

• RR-S is perhaps the coolest glasses wielding pitcher since Rick ‘Wild Thing’ Vaughn appeared on the scene in 1992.

Fan favoritism has little to do with business moves in baseball. But, it couldn’t hurt. Ryan is easily a fan favorite within the Seattle baseball community not to mention just an all around great guy. The loss of him would sadden anyone.

•  Despite RR-S continuing to show us more than we expected from him and posting solid numbers. He has little value to the outside baseball world.

His lack of strike outs and pitch to contact style isn’t flashy. He wasn’t really even thought of as a starter until 2008. He’s profiled as a back of the rotation starter and while he does have a good breaking ball his overall value’s limited. I’m not saying no one would want him. I’m just saying the return isn’t as much as what we would need to give him up at this point.

 This blog post was just simply because I had no other thing to write about today. Yet I still wanted to put something up.

 

Seriously… A New Post???

 Adam Moore is really the subject that I’ve spent the better part of two weeks thinking about. Looking at video and trying to figure out if he should or should not be the starting catcher on this team.

The popular opinion that I’ve garnered is that he needs more seasoning in AAA. The problem I have with that is I don’t understand is that he would will still yield better productivity over 100 games than either Rob Johnson or Josh Bard. So why send him down?

Offensively CHONE, Marcel and Fans already project Adam Moore a notch above Johnson in every offensive category. Looking at Moore’s stats from last year in AAA Tacoma, we get a rough idea of what he could do in Seattle in about 350 AB. Using Minor League Splits MLE (minor league equivalency) calculator based

completely on his 2009 statistics while in Tacoma. We can project Moore at the line below.

AB 2b HR RBI     BA/OBP/SLG
347 15 7 35    .258/.299/.363

The numbers over all are a little under whelming. I get that. But, you have to remember the type of overall production you get from the catching position is normally going to be below replacement for what you get out of a third basemen or first basemen.

The real question that I believe is preventing Adam Moore from being the opening day catcher, is can he be as good as Rob Johnson defensively.

Please stop laughing. There’s more.

This Past Week

Been laying low the last week. Really I’ve tried to figure out how I should do this and that. I guess, it’s just coming to the point of just having the desire to become a better writer. I look at how well other guys in the blogsphere throw out their coherent thoughts. I have good thoughts too. I get overly excited about writing them out that I don’t properly articulate everything the way I should. 

I don’t end thoughts. I continue to miss spell words on a horrific scale. My grammar is … ugh… well… at very best its poor and needs improving. At worst? I just don’t really want to go there.

I just want to say thank you for the friends that continue to encourage me to write.  I have tons of different material and I’m trying. Thank to the readers that continue to come to the website despite no updates in the past week. I promise I’ll have something worth you time eventually.

It’s Dangerous Buisness Walking Out Your Front Door

It’s been a fun two weeks in the Mariners blogsphere. There has been little news that has been really announced outside the awesomeness of Felix El Rey contract extension. But, the news itself doesn’t make the blogsphere turn. It’s the amazing thoughts and perspectives that comes to the writers on a daily basis.

You have Jon Shields and his blog post: Top 5 reasons why Seattle should trade Jose Lopez. However there are more pieces than just Jose Lopez that doesn’t really fit within the organization anymore.I mentioned Carlos Triunfel when I first started back on this blog. His lack of positional need within the organization makes him suspect as trade bait this coming summer. But, despite that possibility the front office has time on their side to allow him to raise his stock.

There is one person that is major league ready and is in the same predicament. Matt Tuiasosopo has long been hearld by the Bavasi era front office as a future. They have pushed him and even stunted his professional growth due to aggressive promotion much too  early then he was ready. Despite that tough major league up bringing he has really begun to flourish.

You could the debate the amount of overall product the Mariners would get over Tuiasosopo from someone like Xaiver Nady, Ryan Garko or Fernando Tatis. None are going to produce more than 1-1.5 additional win over about 100-120 games.

With Tuiasosopo’s on base ability coupled with his natural power he could very well produce positive offensive run support. He has shown the ability to  play average defense and maybe with his quick reaction *possibility* slight above average.  He has the ability to play third base. Now, second and maybe even first base are not out of the question. Now I would push the envelope here and say I think there is a slight possibility that he could play a bit of the outfield.

Coming back down to earth. He has terrible contact rates and part of that is because of his hitting mechanics. He has shown some power. However, outside of last year there hasn’t been any real manifestation of that theory. You would think with his frame there could and should be more as he develops. He is only 23 and he has plenty more to learn before he becomes a real asset to the team. The real likely hood that he could really contribute right now isn’t completely preposterous but, according to CHONE he is worth -0.3 over 114G and 417 PA. Not really what the Mariners need when they are trying to not just win the west but also challenge for the American League crown.

There was a lot made of his improved physical conditioning when he returned from surgery last summer. It was great to see him put the effort into his physical development. However I tend to agree with both Jon Shields and Jason Churchill. The likely hood that the weight stays off long term is (forgive the pun) slim. It did allow him to show case some added ability to possibly play second. Which who knows if that’s a legitimate ability I tend to doubt it as he has limited range due to over all speed and I’ve read a few places problems with his footwork.

Long term he profiles to stays at third. Maybe if the power develops he may have a move first base. He may even show the ability to take on more of a utility role and play the out field as well. The real questions with a few weeks left in the off season. Does Matt Tuiasosopo have a future in Seattle?

Unlike Triunfel there isn’t much development time left for Tuiasosopo. He could stand to have more time in AAA just like Michael Saunders. But then what? What happens to Chone Figgins? Ackley almost assuredly will have an opportunity at second with the big league club as early as the end of the year but more likely sometime next year.

So how does Tuiasosopo fit into this organization. Much like Jose Lopez. He doesn’t, despite what the Tuiasosopo name has meant to the Seattle area. As long as he remains healthy I would expect to see him sent a long in a deal to add depth to another area of the farm system.

I think it’s very possible that Tuiasosopo becomes a better hitter long term than Jose Lopez. Not to mention he shows patience at the plate which is something that Lopez never has.

What his role is going forward in the organization will become more clear as we get through spring training

What Does This Mean?

Dave Cameron speculated during his interview this past week with Brock and Salt that the Mariners aren’t done constructing their roster yet. This feeling is echoed through out the Seattle bloggersphere, local media and even nation wide. All have the feeling the Mariners are exactly satisfied with this roster.

Jack Zduriencik is so sneaky quiet that you never see it coming either. That said the Mariners have been connected in the form of free-agents Orlando Hudson, Ben Sheets, Jarrod Washburn or even there are rumors of Adam Kennedy (I’m working on touching so long as no one beats me to the punch.) Not to mention the possibilities of the possibility of a trade going down in the near future.

Jose Lopez seems to have the biggest target sign on his back. His situation calls for a blog post all in his own. But understand that if he makes it through the season, it will most likely be his last in Seattle. He has a 2011 option and I don’t see him walking for nothing unless he ends up being a type A free-agent. But, I don’t see him around the infield. Ackley as I mentioned previously looks to be near MLB ready. Rich Poythress isn’t far away himself and while he may not have the glove or mobility to play first at the big league level. There is still little room left to keep Lopez around on the roster.

Of course there are always other rumors. Sean White, Mark Lowe, Shawn Kelley, Michael Saunders and Carlos Triunfel. But, Jose Lopez at this point makes the most sense. These moves of course excite everyone. The only problem with multiple moves at this point is we have a roster of 39 players.

So unless the Mariners get everything they want from that one trade for Lopez or that one free-agent signing they are going to need to pass someone through waivers.

The following are players waiver possibilities, should the situation call for it and I believe it most likely will. The sad thing about how well Zduriencik compiled this roster is there aren’t a lot of individuals that don’t have some type of either upside or usefulness to our roster. However, you do have to understand whoever we are replacing them with has a higher upside or is more useful in the long run.

Ryan Feierabend – An average pitcher at best.  Has spent the entire 2009 season recovering from elbow surgery. He is a similar pitcher in regards to someone like Ryan Rowland-Smith. The elbow injury is scary in and of itself. But he never showed big time stuff.

Soft tossing lefty, tends to stay in the 40% range with his fly balls which make him a better pitcher with our improved defense. No way is he a candidate for a starting pitching job. Will mostly work out of the bullpen as a LOOGY. But doesn’t show much in the way of any platoon splits.

Garrett Olson – A slight cut above Feierabend. He doesn’t show much in the way of left handed splits. But, does have okay control and with an above average curve.

The potential to serve time out of the bullpen is there along with the ability to play a dual role of the long guy and/or left handed specialist.

He has some mechanical deficiencies that I would like to see Rick Adair work out. I think visit to the mystic man to find some courage when facing hitters. If he does that I see him becoming a good lefty option out of the bullpen.

Edward Paredes – Yet another lefty, this one is still in the minors. Moved from the rotation into the bullpen this past year with the promotion to High Desert.

He isn’t really impressive in any way. Even at 22 he doesn’t show any real long term success. At very best he is a future less injured version of Ryan Feierabend.

From reading around the forums, blogsphere and to a lesser extent the local media. I would think Paredes is the most likely to be passed through waivers.

Gaby Hernandez – Gaby really the other main waiver target. Has a higher upside. He was considered a top-1o talent two years ago. He has lost velocity off his fastball. His curve-ball isn’t what it used to be. I suppose he could be effective as a the bullpen arm.

Ultimately the potential is there.  I would like to see him stick around just in case he does find it. Although I have to admit, he is another bavasi blunder and time is running short.

Yusmeiro Petit - Was picked up via waivers from Arizona. You have to asume that with Jack Zduriencik’s goal of bringing in 5th starter depth that at this point he’s not going anywhere. I don’t think that he’ll make it past spring training. But, you never know. He has some average stuff and if he comes out and surprises. He could very well make the team. Otherwise they may cut him or even try to wave him and squeeze him into AAA.

There are no position players I would consider placing on waivers right now. Again as was speculated Tommy Everidge similar to Petit, he may get snuck through waivers towards the end of spring training.

Another quick note. Relief pitcher Kanekoa Texeira most likely is returned to the Yankees or they work out a deal to keep him. Most likely he doesn’t make the team out of spring training. So he isn’t really an option at this point.

Griffey and Production

You know everyone really didn’t like the idea of Griffey coming back. Honestly I am a bit disappointed in the move. It hindered the possibility of bringing in someone like Johnny Gomes or Jack Cust. Who both have much higher upside than Griffey.

The thing we don’t realize about Griffey that while he went through a lot of last year with on going knee injuries. Which hopefully was fixed with surgery this past year. While Griffey understands that his playing time is limited, I and everyone else wonders how effective he is going to be.

Instead of just looking at it purely based upon his production last year. It’s best to look at his stats from the last two years (the start of his true decline).

Now I shouldn’t say the start of his decline. Because really the past two years he has really struggled with injuries. Well in  fairness since the start of the decade he has struggled with injuries. But the thing that is interesting to me is he still nearly posted a .200 ISO. He still retains the power to hit 30+ home runs a year.

He is a great patient hitter averaging at least 13BB% over the past three years and 11.6% for his career. He knows how to get on base. So why was his wOBA so low .335/.323 the past two years? You would think looking at his K% 18-20% that it would be part of the reason. But thats something that has never changed. He always maintained that type of What has changed is his BABIP a solid .272 and even worse .222.

His LD% dropped over 5% last year. Which may show a problem with his slowing of overall bat speed. There was some talk about his problem handling a fastball last year. But, looking at fangraphs he was worth 3.8 and 7.8+ runs over the past two seasons according to fangraphs.

What has changed according to fangraphs is his inability to his a breaking ball. He accrud -3.8 against curveballs, -5.9 versus the change and 0.4 when pitchers threw the splitter.

He is a terrible fielder. That was chronicled pretty well by fangraphs back in November by Lookout Landing’s own Matthew Carruth. But, I do believe  he has potential to still be an effective hitter. The question is simply not will his body hold up? When will it give out?

Sheets

There has been a few different post pertaining to the current pay roll situation with the Mariners. Overall it’s estimated there is approximately 10 million dollars left in the budget. There is a lot of emphasis on signing Ben Sheets (who I’ve been a huge proponent of this whole off season). I think its the best possible move. I have a problem with the some of the ideas going around.

It seems to be the popular notion that anything beyond a one year contract would be a bad deal. That’s the wrong additude to have towards a player with the upside of Sheets.

A player option is a bad idea. Basically it would give him the leverage that if he gets injured he could come back on his terms. If he does stay healthy and pitches well he gets to opt for free-agency. Instead I would propose a two year deal with around 11-14 million guaranteed and another 10 that is incentive based. Some people may see this as much more risk than reward.

Let’s think about this for a second. Griffin Cooper pointed out at SodoMojo a listing of the Seattle Mariners depth charts over the next few years. We don’t have a real quality pitchers behind Hernandez.

As Jeff Sullivan over at Lookout Landing pointed out we have money. What are the odds he doesn’t pitch more than 140 innings? Two years in a row? Even while pitching injured he has put up atleast 2 WAR every year he’s pitched.

Compare him to the other injury option Jarrod Washburn whom people have recently fixated upon. Who for the first time in four years managed to rack up 2.1 WAR. While, Washburn maybe cheaper.  He doesn’t have near the upside that Sheets maintains. He also has no place on this team beyond this year (and even then I’m not sure someone like Vargas or French isn’t better.)

His shoulder problems as Jon Sheilds tweeted out is a concern just as much as his elbow. But his mechanics looked smooth and hit as high as 92 mph with his fastball while hovering around the 90s the rest of the workout.Jason Churchill wrote a good piece on the Sheets work out

I’m not worried about his health. He may not pitch a whole season, but we gave Bedard 7 million guaranteed despite knowing full well that he most likely wouldn’t give you a full season. Whats wrong with signing Sheets hoping and expecting the same out put.   Oh only our fall back plan this time isn’t Jarrod Washburn. Its CLIFF LEE! We don’t have nearly as much to loose as we didn’t with Bedard.  It was thought  how well we performed was dictated how healthy Bedard was. Now, it turned out to be that we had an amazing defense that turned mediocre pitchers into Cy Young candidate. Sheets is just icing on the cake.

That’s something we should discuss also. Sheets isn’t going to give you more than 20 games a year. He is going to skip days in the rotation and may even see the disable list more than once. But, that’s okay we are getting 15-20 games of Ben Sheets with 12-15 games of Jason Vargas or Doug Fister is going to still give you more wins above replacement then 30 games of Jarrod Washburn, Jon Garland, or Vincentte Padilla (assuming he can still pitch after shooting himself in the leg).

If it takes a two year contract to get Ben Sheets. I’m okay with that. If it takes 7.5 m$ of guaranteed money for two years with another 5+ worth of incentives. I’m okay with it.

He is going to give you quality starts and if you expect him to give you 2 WAR then paying 3.35 million a win is a STEAL. The Mariners are at a place where they need ever last player to produce. You are replace a .5-1.5 win player (Vargas or Fister) with nearly 3 win (Sheets with Vargas/Fister) player.

Dave Cameron wrote an article a month or so ago (if you can find it please paste it in a comment below) about being at a point where as we get closer each win was going to cost us more than the league average. This off-season the going rate is around 3.7 million a win. Last year it was around 4 (not sure of the 2009 going rate). That last win is going to put us ever closer to the AL West title.

No one is against going after Ben Sheets. Most people like the idea. But they are cautious about giving him too much money. Too cautious. We are going into this season with every intention of taking the division. To compete we need the best product available and its going to take a risk.

Tons of news … Where am I?

Well, you have all this news going on today and where am I? Writing a business ethics paper. Actually thats been a lot of fun so far. But, thats why I haven’t really posted any news or blogs in the last week. Ill most likely be a little quiet the rest of the week. But, I have about 4 or 5 posts being worked out right now. So when it rains it pours.

Below would be the consolidated link list that is the King Felix blog roll.

Lookout Landing

USS Mariner

Proball NW

Prospect Insider

Seattle Times

Tacoma News Tribune

HearldNet

Wow. Please … they through out so many things and so many perspectives and you want an orignal thought from me?

Actually, I do have  just a small something to give. Reflecting on the past, my youth and the soon  future. With my son on the way I hope for the same opportunity that he may be able to watch King Felix the same way I got to watch Griffey patrol center in the Kingdome.

With King Felix taking this extension it gives me that hope that I haven’t honestly had in the last 10 years. Since the departure of “The Unit” and shortly there after Griffey and then Alex.

The thought that we now have that perineal all-star locked up long-term is beyond exciting. Ichiro brought that to this team and even with the loss of Rodriguez we could still go on. But, the clock is ticking with Ichiro.  He is 37 years old and you just have to wonder just how long he is going to be around. Sure he could be doing this for the next 6+ years. But, maybe he hangs it up in the next 3. You never know.

But today we kept an identity. Secured a face, a name to the franchise for the next 5 years. Today, no matter what happens the rest of the year. We know there is a bright spot not just for this year but also for the years to come.

Just a few simple minded thoughts on this late tuesday night.

The 5th Rotation Spot

We are just a little more than a month out for pitchers and catchers reporting (Feb.  18). There is need for a bit of reflection and discussion with the moves that have been made on the roster the past few months.

Below is a little chart I put together of the pitchers 2009 performance in each specific group below.

Name	BB%	K%	GB%	LD%	HR/FB%	LOB%	xFIP	tRA
Garret Olson*	9.96%	12.12%	33.70%	19.20%	15.40%	71.90%	5.44	6.93
Luke French*	9.88%	12.79%	31.80%	22.00%	9.60%	70.90%	5.52	6.18
Yusmeiro Petit	8.04%	19.04%	31.00%	20.40%	13.30%	67.60%	4.76	6.26
Jason Vargas*	7.01%	12.50%	36.60%	21.10%	12.70%	70.20%	4.68	5.85
Douglas Fister	5.58%	13.94%	41.30%	19.90%	14.10%	79.00%	4.5	5.81

*denotes lefty

There are reasons we are looking at the following. They are all statistics a pitcher can influence. But, I won’t explain it further. I find I would just fall short. Besides Dave Cameron already wrote it all out. See here

staring at the chart you may see I placed the pitchers in a particular order. Olson, French, Petit, Vargas and Fister. I believe I racked the from worst (Olson) to best (Fister) available options for the 5th starting rotation spot.

Garrett Olson

Over valued in a weak Orioles system. He may have had better stuff at one time. But he has a delay in his release. Allowing the batter to pick the ball up better out of the pitchers hand.

He’s not as bad as he showed in 2009. He does have a solid change-up. The curve and even slider look to have improved from over the past couple of years. The problem with Olson is his fastball, worth -15 runs over the course of last year.

Looking at Pitch F/X he is only in the strike zone with it about 45-49% of the time.  He needs to use the fastball to attack the strike zone. Similar to the way Doug Fister does. His fastball isn’t great and it may even be below average. I just don’t like how he chooses to use it and his command of it.

Below is a strike zone plot from May 16th at home against the Red Soxs.

You do see a lot of four-seemers in the middle of the plate.  Which is not what I mean by “attack the strike zone”.  You see just in general the rest of his pitches are scattered mostly around north of the strike zone. 

What is humorous. Almost every article that I can find over the last few years all mentions that Olson has to pitch without fear. I get the impression the difference from AAA to big league is something he greatly struggles with. Maybe becomes overwhelmed. He is best utilized as a LOOGY. 

 

Luke French

Isn’t a very different pitcher from Olson. He sports the fastball, slider, change-up. His change-up is not nearly as good as Olson’s however the slider shows flashes of above average stuff. Something that is a must have for finesse pitcher.

Looking at French’s Pitch FX over several different games. You can tell he pounds the strike zone opposed to Garrett Olsen. Below is an example from August 5th against the Royals.

His stats aren’t big. He scouts very similar to Garrett Olson. He doesn’t have very much Major League baseball experience. So what we end up getting out of him, for better or worse is still unseen. I’m convinced that he isn’t any better

 

Yusmeiro Petit

Picked up off waivers earlier this off-season from the Arizona diamondback. He is different from the past two pitchers in this group. He misses bats.  He’s still young just turning 25 in November. He was considered the #2 prospect in the Mets system from 2005,06 seasons.

His pitch repertoire consists of a four seamer, change-up, slider and curve ball. All of which are at least average and he has plus command of each of them.

He isn’t going to set the world on fire. He doesn’t throw hard (max out 89-90) and at best he is a #4 starter. But, his HR/FB ratio should decrease getting out of Arizona and moving into a pitcher’s park. He is an extreme fly ball pitcher and will of course benefit from the amazing defense supplied in the out field.

I don’t know if he is the best option for the 5th spot. But, he certainly isn’t the worse.

Jason Vargas

Similar to Petit (above) he is an extreme fly ball pitcher. Being left-handed he could suppress the shorter right field porch at Safeco.

He throws the same fastball-change-slider-curve arsenal as Yusmeiro Petit, below. He is a simple pitch to contact pitcher that runs about a 19% miss bats rate. He is the best left-handed option in my opinion.

His pitches are pretty average. Has shown to use his off-speed stuff well enough in the past to keep a low line drive percentage.  It did run a career high of 20% last year. But, after a year off and recovering from a major injury I think last year was an encouraging sign.

He has a #4/5 ceiling and could be effective either in or out of the bullpen.

 

Doug Fister

Dougie Fister. The soft tosser out California came really from no where last year. He is nearly the opposite of every person on this list. He is left-handed. He isn’t a fly ball pitcher that does miss a few bats here and there.

The key to his success is simple. His control is amazing walking only 15 batters over 61 innings last year.

He sports a good change-curve combo. But, he mixes it up with a two seamer. Which has shown to be one of his most important pitches. Despite that it’s still an average pitch.

Fister showed the ability, to induce important ground balls over the course end of the season. In an interview he said he likes to get that groundball. I would love to see him improve his He’s nothing particularly special. It’s his command over every pitch that makes him effective.

The one thing that I must say that does worry me about Fister. This was only his first go around. On the second time through the Yankees in September he gave up 6 earned runs. However, the second time against the Athletics he was better. I suppose we’ll find out more about him this season.

I would like to see him get more ground balls this next season and lower his HR/FB ratio. He has had a bit of luck on his side with runners LOB at nearly 80%.  He improves on those things and I think he is the best guy for the job.

 

Final Thoughts

To bring this all together. All together these pitchers combined most likely won’t produce anything more than a single win-above-replacement.

I think Fister has the best chance to come out of spring training as the #5. Petit was an interesting pick up buy low pick-up. Then you have left-handed extreme fly ball pitchers who tend to be effective at Safeco.

I really would love to see the Mariners make a move for someone like Aaron Harang or sign Ben Sheets. But neither seems very likely. I’ve heard a lot of valid talk about Harang opposed to Sheets. Sheets rumor has it doesn’t want to be in the Northwest. Too bad, his freakin’ loss.

Triunfel

Well with starting back to work and having some time off from blogging it has allowed me to think randomly about a few things. This for me is the essence of my being (whenever I say essence I think of Zoolander, “Moisture is the essence of wetness, and wetness is the essence of beauty” cracks me up every time). Randomness is just what I do.

We have pretty good idea at this point. What those 2010 Mariners will look like. I do think there are still some deals that will come about. But, what could happen is of course limited than say what could have happened in November/December.

It gives a time of reflection. Not just with the outlook of the big league club. You have to consider how everything that has gone down this off-season affects the minor league system. Right now the thought forefront in my mind is what is to become of Carlos Triunfel. He has been a top prospect within the organization since he signed from the Dominican Republic at 16.

He very well could get squeezed out of the infield and possibly out of the organization.  Between the possible re-position of Dustin Ackley to second and the signing of Chone Figgins to fill in for Adrian Beltre at third. Unless he stays at short (unlikely), there is no real long term spot for him. Of course, there are a few options out there.

Option A) Trade him.

The thought trading him has been thrown out and tossed around a bit. I am a bit hesitant about doing that right now. If only that we wouldn’t be gaining maxim value for his ability. Because of the leg injury his display of maneuverability and range is important to his prospect stock. He hasn’t really had an opportunity to show his recovery. Playing just 6 games in the Arizona fall league and only 2 games of winter ball with the Tigres del Licey in the DR winter league.

His work outs have all been positive at this point as Jason Churchill has pointed out. But, at the same time the Mariners organization, as well as others, need to see positive reinforcement at some time for that belief. This makes me doubt the use of his involvement in a trade prior to the deadline in August.

I personally believe at this point, it’s only a matter of time and the right situation before Triunfel is packaged and sent to a new organization. I think that the Mariners have a solid minor league system of 2b/3b prospects. Having the depth of Juan Diaz, Gabriel Noriega and Nick Franklin also helps with Triunfel’s inevitable move off shortstop as well.

Option B) Trade Figgins

I know, I know. He just signed a deal for the next four years (an option for a fifth). Why would we trade him? I’m not talking about doing it over the weekend. But with Figgins speed and ability to get on base, it’s quite possible he is still a valued commodity up to that fourth or fifth year. There is nothing in the rule book that says once Triunfel is ready that we can’t trade Figgins away. He doesn’t have an outrageous contract and his versatility could even allow him to stick around.

Option C) Move Figgins to new position

One of the reasons that Don Wakamatsu and Jack Zduriencik like Figgins as much as they do is because of his versatility. He has the ability to play other positions. Second, third, or even left field are all options at this point. It leaves room to make adjustments with other players and flip other players of more perceived worth. I really do think this could be a possibility.

Option D) Move Triunfel to the outfield

I’ll throw out this recycled idea because honestly it’s one of my favorites. Maybe the organization moves him to a corner outfield spot. I really like the idea for him to move into right field. His average speed plays well while allowing the cannon attached to his right shoulder knock out runners trying to take an extra base. Think of a Jay Buhner take away half the power and double the ability to hit for average. BOOM! You have Carlos Triunfel. Yes, we do have an “excess” of outfield prospects throughout the minor league system. But Triunfel’s’ bat sits behind Dustin Ackley as one the best within the system.

Option E) LEAVE ACKLEY ALONE!

Okay, the only knock I’ve ever heard on Dustin Ackley is his throwing arm. But let’s face it. He did have Tommy John surgery back in July ’08. Because of the surgery he was kept to playing first base. This of course allowed him to continue hitting. I’ve seen some sites crediting him as having “plus-plus” speed and should his arm return to full strength I’ve seen reports that grade it a 50 (an overall average arm) which one would think is enough to play center.

As I said there are options out there. I don’t know which way the Mariners are going at this point. They do have some interesting moves ahead of them. Ultimately I expect him to be traded once his stock recovers a bit and some of the skepticism has been removed about his ability.

I personally would like to see him stick around. Position openings may be difficult to work around, but having a guys in the minors that are just natural at hitting should be considered special.